Tuesday, February 09, 2016

New Hampshire

Eight years ago I was in Manchester New Hampshire on the night of the 2008 Democratic primary. I stopped in at Kucinich HQ to see Dennis and Elizabeth for the election returns at a Manchester pub. I also had a wicked cold that night and the Guinness only slightly helped.


Dennis had a very low finish, and he ended up dropping out even before the Connecticut primary. Along with Chris Dodd who dropped soon after.

Hillary made a spirited charge in the final days of the campaign, overcoming a 10-point deficit in the polls to surprise Obama and win by about 3 points.

Today was a different matter. Bernie Sanders rode to an easy victory, with something along the lines of an 18% margin (at press time there was only 24% of the vote counted).

I wonder what changed for Hillary over the last eight years. She isn't a significantly different candidate than she was then. But I guess more people in the region likes Bernie's message, and voted for their neighbor from the Green Mountain State.

Donald Trump also got a huge boost with his win in New Hampshire. I don't know what this says about Granite State Republicans.

Now there's an 11-day wait until the Nevada Democratic caucuses, where Hillary has a significant lead; and then the South Carolina Democratic primary on February 27th. Where Hillary also leads.

But a lot can happen between now and then. Sanders is in a solid position to make inroads on Clinton's lead, and all we need to do to remember that is to look at how Hillary overcame a big lead by Obama to win.

This could happen again in several weeks.

Dixville Notch results are in!


Reporting minutes after midnight, ConnecticubBob.com is proud to be the FIRST blog in the universe to give the results of the first town in New Hampshire's primary!

Trump 2
Kasich 3

Sanders 4
Clinton 0

Clearly, Bernie Sanders will be our next president if every other voter in the United States meets with some sort of horrific accident and can't vote!

Four are registered Republican, 4 are Independent and 1 is a Democrat. So, the important non-affiliated vote went 4 for Sanders and 1 for a Republican. This doesn't matter, like, at all. Never did, never will. Dixville Notch is just a bit of Americana that we can all smile about and then get on to the serious business of making snarky comments about the election!

Stay tuned to ConnecticutBob.com for more results as they come in!

Monday, February 08, 2016

Fiorinthusiasm!

This woman was only interested in her breakfast, not the crowd or media surrounding Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina as she campaigned hard at Blake's in Manchester Monday morning in the final hours leading up to the presidential primary. PAT GROSSMITH/UNION LEADER


Fiorina's dynamic presence obviously didn't impress this lady, who was probably wondering what all the hubbub was about!

We're only a few hours until the voters in Dixville Notch (2010 population was 12) gather at a minute after midnight to cast their votes. The polls (one poll, actually) close as soon as 100% of the registered voters cast their votes, usually in the first minute or two. And then the results are announced to the media.

The winter storm (can we just call it "snow", like we did when the media didn't whip itself into a frenzy of orgiastic delight every time a few snowflakes fall out of the sky?) will probably have little effect on turnout, since they're pretty much used to crap weather up there. The bigger deterrent may be the unbeatable lead the two candidates are enjoying. Possibly the turnout won't be as high as previous years, which could result in wildly unforeseen results.

Ah, who's kiddin' who? It's gonna be Trump and Sanders by easy double-digit margins, and then the candidates get to battle it out in South Carolina and Nevada. Coming soon.

Sunday, February 07, 2016

Sunday Night Music Club v.42

Yes, I know it's a busy time for politics!

That's exactly why I put up a fun song, because we all need a break now and again.

Last night was a doozy, with the GOP debate (I'll have some observations probably on Twitter and/or Facebook later today, before I watch the 1% Bowl; excuse me, the Super Bowl...) And Bernie Sanders was on SNL, but I fell asleep immediately after the monologue, so I'll have to watch it this morning.

Smash Mouth's retro pop hit "Walkin' On The Sun" is a favorite. Especially their wonderfully nostalgic music video.

But when I see the song's title, I often think of Christopher Walken being incinerated while traipsing on the sun. Maybe the song needs more cowbell!

Saturday, February 06, 2016

Apropos of nothing

So, my other blog is basically moribund, me not having posted there in over a year. And that's where I post stuff about entertainment, so this is where I'll now put stuff that I find interesting even if it's not politically relevant. We have three days before the New Hampshire primary and besides, we all know who's gonna win both contests.

Anyways, I was watching the second episode of "Mozart In The Jungle", the very good Amazon original comedy about the lives of symphony orchestra musicians in New York, when I noticed a particular transition shot they used that looked very familiar.

About two months ago Joyce & I spent a weekend in Manhattan, and while we were there we took the awesome Roosevelt Island Tramway, which runs from roughly 60th St. at 2nd Ave. to the island at about 18 mph. We went over at night, and I shot video (naturally) of the 3-minute trip.

As I watched the episode, I noticed a familiar skyline on one particular shot. The camera was "dollying" from the lower right to the upper left, which looked like a helicopter shot. Just as the Tramway does when it climbs out of it's Manhattan station.


Immediately I thought "wow, that looks like the view from the Tramway!". I played the video file I had of our night crossing, and sure enough, there was the exact view as on the show, except for the time of day.


If you look at both pictures, you can see that obviously this was shot from the Tramway. And I think it's a wonderful and affordable way to get a spectacular helicopter or drone-looking scene at a fraction of the cost (a regular Metro fare, which I think is currently $2.75; although you get a free transfer if you got there via the subway like we did!)

On the night we did it there were tons of tourists just taking the trip for the view. We actually explored the island a bit (if you call getting a drink at a local pub and taking a couple pictures of the bridge "exploring"...and yes, that qualifies in MY book!), when we went to the station for the return trip we saw a tram car come in, and 90% of the people exited the car and immediately got in line for their return trip! Maybe a half-dozen people actually got off and left the station.

Which, I guess, is a function of the reality that the island has now has a Metro station that services the F Train. It's probably easier and quicker to take than exiting the subway in Manhattan a block or two away and then climbing a couple flights of stair to get in line for the Tram.

Here's the (nicely edited) video of our recent tram ride at night:



March Primary Schedule

March Schedule

March is a huge month for primaries and caucuses. So here's the latest dates; some are still tentative, but as I make corrections I'll add a notation so you'll know it's the latest info. Per usual, my primary (heh-heh) source of these data is Frontloading HQ. Enjoy!

Tuesday, March 1:

Alabama

Alaska Republican caucuses

Arkansas

Colorado Democratic caucuses
Colorado Republican caucuses

Georgia

Massachusetts

Minnesota caucuses

North Dakota Republican caucuses

Oklahoma

Tennessee

Texas

Vermont

Virginia

Wyoming Republican caucuses

Saturday, March 5:

Kansas Democratic caucuses
Kansas Republican caucuses

Kentucky Republican caucuses

Louisiana

Maine Republican caucuses

Nebraska Democratic caucuses

Sunday, March 6:

Maine Democratic caucuses

Puerto Rico (Republicans)

Tuesday, March 8:

Hawaii Republican caucuses

Idaho (Republicans only)

Michigan

Mississippi

Saturday, March 12:

Guam Republican convention

Washington, DC Republican convention

Tuesday, March 15:

Florida

Illinois

Missouri

North Carolina

Northern Mariana Islands Republican caucuses

Ohio

Saturday, March 19:

Virgin Islands Republican convention

Tuesday, March 22:

American Samoa convention

Arizona

Idaho Democratic caucuses

Utah Democratic caucuses

Utah Republican caucuses (online voting begins March 15)

Saturday, March 26:

Alaska Democratic caucuses

Hawaii Democratic caucuses

Washington Democratic caucuses

Thursday, February 04, 2016

New Hampshire polling puts Trump, Sanders far ahead


Looking at the polls in New Hampshire via RealClearPolitics, it appears Donald Trump can boycott as many GOP debates as he wants and still win by a comfortable margin.

RCP has an aggregate result of Trump getting 32.8% and leading the rest of the field by 21%. Rubio, Cruz and Kasich are vying for 2nd place with figures ranging from 11.0 to 11.8%.

If those numbers are true, Trump really CAN shoot someone on 5th Avenue and still take the primary!

In the Democratic race, regional favorite son Bernie Sanders has an aggregate lead over Hillary Clinton of 54.6% to 38.8%, which translates to a 15.8% difference.

Again, if those numbers are true, well, Bernie can't exactly SHOOT anyone on 5th Avenue, but he can probably shove someone lightly out of the way when trying to board the 6 Train while the doors are closing at the 59th Street station!

Better he probably should avoid doing anything like that, just to be safe.

UPDATE: What a difference a day makes! Sanders' lead over Clinton has jumped an additional 5 points since yesterday's aggregates. On the GOP side, Trump slumped (yes, it's fun to rhyme words) about 5% as Rubio and Cruz made gains. Interesting to watch the polls and try to anticipate where they'll be on Tuesday; and of course how much they differ from the predicted margins. Once thing that may play into the election is the weather. If there is a low turnout because of snow or rain, it may skew the numbers significantly, especially if the trailing candidate has an organized GOTV team. This may be fun!

In any case, it looks like the outcome of this contest isn't very much in doubt, and the race to the convention will heat up with the later contests this month, starting on the 20th and continuing as below:

Saturday, February 20:
Nevada Democratic caucuses
South Carolina Republican primary

Tuesday, February 23:
Nevada Republican caucuses

Saturday, February 27:
South Carolina Democratic primary

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

February contests remaining

Tuesday, February 9:
New Hampshire

Saturday, February 20:
Nevada Democratic caucuses
South Carolina Republican primary

Tuesday, February 23:
Nevada Republican caucuses

Saturday, February 27:
South Carolina Democratic primary

via Frontloading HQ

A virtual tie

12 hours after the caucus doors closed and we still don't have a clear decisive winner for the Democrats in Iowa.

The current count, as of roughly 8AM Tuesday, is Hillary Clinton 49.9% to Bernie Sanders 49.6%. The difference is the closest race in Iowa history.

So while it's a virtual tie, Hillary will win the state and get the handful of delegates that comes with it.

More noteworthy is the fact that winning the first official contest is a huge boost for Hillary, and it will make it easier for her to raise money.

But also consider that Bernie Sanders has pretty much come out of nowhere and nearly upset a massively funded candidate. The table is set for an exciting primary next Tuesday in New Hampshire, where the polls are already clearly in Sanders' favor.

To a sports fan like myself, a tie is almost more frustrating than an outright loss. In politics however, you have to look beyond the final score and examine all the ramifications of a razor-thin margin.

Yes, Hillary won.

But nobody at this point thinks Bernie is going away.

After New Hampshire, we have South Carolina and Nevada. but the calendar is a little weird, and also the Washington (state) Republican caucuses. More updates soon.

Monday, February 01, 2016

Iowa elected a foreigner today

Ya hear that, Republican birthers?

Your front-runner and winner of the Iowa caucus is a dirty foreigner.

I don't actually know if he's dirty specifically, but judging how reasonable all you dummies were about President Obama, I really don't feel like I'm varying at all from your treatment of him.

So you are all in favor of a guy who has a Cuban father and was born in Calgary, which isn't located in the USA, and categorically is in a real foreign nation.

Ted Cruz is a Canadian, and also possibly a naturalized US citizen, although I haven't seen his passport. Can we see your supposed US passport senator?

But as you Birthers have endlessly pointed out, the possibility that Barack Obama might have been born in Kenya (which has been repeatedly and firmly debunked, but that didn't stop you knuckleheads) would have disqualified him from being president.


Welp, where are all you douchebags now that you've given a free-range Canadian a win in Iowa? In direct opposition to that glorious document you guys only quote the 2nd amendment from.

Check out the specific wording of Article Two of the Constitution:

No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States

I don't think there is any more obvious interpretation of this article except to agree that should one be born on foreign soil, they are ineligible for the office of the President. Sorry, but that's the rules.

Nice try Ted. Now get your dirty ass back over the border to Calgary.