Sunday, December 09, 2012

I was close on my popular vote prediction

Here's what I predicted on election morning in this blog post:
Obama-Biden 52.5%
Romney-Ryan 45.5%
Other 2.0%
And Obama-Biden will get 295 electoral votes.

The actual results were:

Obama-Biden 50.95%
Romney-Ryan 47.31%
Other 1.74%

So, I was over by 1.55% on Obama, and under by 1.81% on Romney, and nearly hit the Other demo by about 1/4%.

This is pretty good by most peoples standards.

Although, before I break out the Moet, I did completely blow the Electoral vote, since Obama got 332 votes compared to my squeaker prediction of 295. Obviously I didn't take into account the individual states, including those important battlegrounds that Obama won eight out of the nine. But I did at least call it right in the results.

And I did much better than Rasmussen and Gallup, who both called the popular vote for Romney. The RCP Average (Real Clear Politics) had Obama winning by a much closer margin, 48.8 to 48.1, only 0.7%.

So finally, I can breath a sigh of relief that I actually GOT ONE RIGHT!

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