Saturday, January 23, 2016

Iowa and New Hampshire looking to be a coupla doozies!

Mired at home during Super Fucking Blizzard Jonad (eh, maybe a foot or so of's what we called a "snow day" when I was a kid), I've been looking at the poll numbers for the first two kickoff events for the 2016 primary season.

Or what I like to call, my most favorite time of the (four) years!

Next to the America's Cup and the Winter Olympics, this is my most favorite spectator sport that happens quadrennially! (my spell check doesn't think this is a word, but I beg to differ!)

Looking at the fields for both parties going down to the final weeks, I have to say that this is looking exciting. The Democrats have a spirited battle between de facto nominee Hilary Clinton and vocal conscience of the party Bernie Sanders.

The most recent polls are putting Clinton at an advantage in the Iowa caucuses, while Sanders seems to have a majority in New Hampshire.

The way it looks to me, and I'll be the first to say I'm not entirely sure how caucuses are set up, it seems Hilary has a lead with caucus voters, who probably are somewhat more invested in their position than the average Joe Voter guy. As a caucuser (there goes spell check again!) you typically are expected to assemble and discuss your choice with other voters. So this seems to be somewhat more of a "party supporter's" group. And to me, I'd say Hilary has a lot of support from party people.

Bernie seems to be attracting a populist surge in his campaigning. He's the kind of candidate that most "typical" Democratic voters might associate with. His media crew is doing a phenomenal job promoting him and his ideas, and they make Hilary look almost lost by comparison.

I'm wondering if we'll have the sort of primary year (like 2008) where every single primary mattered! It will be fun for at least a while, that's for sure.

Meanwhile on the Republican side, Trump v. Cruz seems to be the main battle. Donald Trump is that rarest of candidates, the type that has no experience and no filter. He says whatever he likes, and his target group eats it up. I'd be honestly surprised if Trump didn't win any of the February contests, and he may win most of them!

The Iowa Caucus is scheduled for February 1st, and the New Hampshire primary is on February 8th. I can't wait!

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