Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Obama surges in South Carolina

(Click to enlarge)

Barack Obama has opened a significant lead over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in South Carolina, according to polls reported at

South Carolina, scheduled for this Saturday, is the last Democratic primary that counts before the February 5th "Super Tuesday" 22-state contest. Florida's primary is next Tuesday, but the results will be largely symbolic. The DNC has disqualified all of Florida's delegates at the national convention because they moved their primary earlier than February 5th. Clinton is expected to win easily in the Sunshine State.

I'm a bit surprised that regional son John Edwards isn't polling higher. I don't know if that's because voters simply don't agree with him, or if they've concluded that this is gonna be a Clinton-Obama contest and they simply want to vote for the likely winner. Edwards is polling around 15% to Clinton's 31% and Obama's 44%.

Regardless of the polls, we all know that anything is possible. After Clinton's victory in New Hampshire when the polls indicated an easy Obama victory, I'm not assuming anything!


J said...

Hey Bob,

You had a thread up a little while ago regarding who you should pick for your vote...How are the Clintons distortions of Obama's record influencing you?

After typing that, I realize that it looks like some kind of a weird blog push poll, but I am actually genuinely curious.

CT Bob said...

I'm not very happy with Bill's insistence on being the attack dog for Hillary. I think it smacks of cheap politicking and worries me about Hillary's leadership abilities. Honestly, I'm leaning slightly towards Obama right now, but I haven't fully decided.

I'd actually like John Edwards to pull off a miracle in SC this Saturday and regain first tier status, but I seriously doubt that'll happen. I'll give him a chance though.

Even though only 3 or 4 people would actually give a crap about it (and I'm counting myself in that total; my wife is one of those who couldn't possibly care less) I'll endorse a candidate after the SC primary, in advance of our primary on February 5th.

I'll prepare a statement for the media, just in case.

Anonymous said...

Hi Bob,

I can not get the feeling out of my gut that there is some connection between Lieberman and Obama. I understand Ned supports Barack. Since John Edwards does has a more positive message than the others. I think he is worth my vote.

Anonymous said...

One of the things to keep in mind, state by state is the condition of their election administration and voting security. South Carolina has paperless electronic voting, virtually unverifiable. It will be interesting to compare results in relatively secure states vs. insecure states to see if the elections come out as expected.

I haven't yet located a state by state breakdown of the election security situation, but it would be a GREAT lens to use to look at these upcoming primaries!

J said...

Who thought it was a good idea to move to electronic, unverifiable voting systems in the first place? Computer companies will control the vote.

And anonymous...I dispute your contention that Edwards has a more positive message than Obama...Edwards hasn't been the target of outright lies by the Clintons and hasn't had to get a little dirty fighting back. Its a crying shame that this is the effect of the game they are playing to get themselves back into power.