I was giving odds (3-1 at last estimate) but a metaphorical death watch seems more appropriate. It's not whether it's going to happen, but when? I say 9/7/08 is going to be the day.
Over on FDL they've started a "Sarah Palin Goodbye Watch", but really, shouldn't it be called a figurative "death watch"? Because her political ambitions are going to expire well before their time (which would have been November 4th anyway). Here's a quote from FDL commenter Hugh:
This is what I currently have on Palin.Listen, I feel for the gal. Even though I hate her Creationist, anti-Choice, anti-Sex Ed, pro-big oil politics, she almost seems to be a victim of unlucky circumstance.
Troopergate/ currently ducking a deposition under oath
Replaced the guy she fired in troopergate with someone with a sexual harassment complaint who lasted 2 weeks
Alaska Independence Party
Used a state site to promote mining interests over clean water.
Bridge to nowhere being for it before she was against
For earmarks before she was against them
Firing or threatening to fire employees as mayor over loyalty issues
Involved in the 527 for Ted Stevens
Her daughter’s pregnancy
Her own still dubious pregnancy/flying 3000 miles after her water broke
Her expensive screwup with building a rec center as mayor
Pro-abstinence only (Tell that one to Bristol)
Anti-environment (wolves and polar bears)
Creationist/wants it taught in schools
You see, she had the inordinate bad luck to be chosen as John McCain's running mate way too soon in her career. She really needed a lot more seasoning before she was ready to be served. I'm sure by Alaska's standards she's a great leader, but consider that they have a history of repeatedly electing Ted Stevens.
Palin might have become a powerful ultra-right Republican if she'd had better luck. But after this debacle finally wraps up, she'll be regarded with less respect than even Dan Quayle.
It's too bad for her. But ultimately, even in a non-lethal war of political ideologies, there's going to be some collateral damage. Sarah will be remembered as a tragic footnote in Republican history.
And then, of course, we'll have Joe Lieberman to kick around once more.
UPDATE: Via the HuffPo, here's the latest odds:
As of Tuesday night, Intrade, the political futures market, was offering gamblers convinced that Palin will withdraw 8.3-to-1 odds: that anyone betting $12 dollars that Palin would be off the ticket before November 4 would get $100 back if they were proved right.Put me down for $120. I'll send the $1000 to Obama's campaign.