In the latest Quinnipiac Poll, Ned Lamont enjoys a nearly double-digit lead among likely Democratic voters over rival Dan Malloy in his bid for the gubernatorial nomination.
Previous Q-Polls only questioned "registered Democrats", which is a larger pool and includes people who haven't bothered to vote for years. "Likely voters" are Democrats who have actually voted during the last few years, and are the ones who are most likely to drag themselves out of bed on August 10th and go down to their polling place.
So Lamont's current 9-point lead over Malloy in this poll is more likely reflective of his actual lead than previous polls that only questioned registered Dems. But you can't really compare the two polls when they questioned different sets of Democrats, so anyone who claims the race is tightening isn't working with valid data. Reporters who cover the political beat should know this difference.
UPDATE: Gallup has an excellent write up on the difference between "registered voters" and "likely voters". In the interest of accuracy it would be great if some of our esteemed reporters out there would read this.
In the Q-poll Lamont also beats Republican front runners Tom Foley and Mike Fedele by a larger margin than Malloy.
In a very telling trend line of registered Democrats, Lamont actually increased his lead over Malloy since the previous poll. Because both polls used "registered Democrats", it gives a more accurate picture (click on image to enlarge):
Lamont's lead over Malloy increased from 17 points to 20 points since the June 10th poll. And the June 10th poll was conducted BEFORE the televised June debate between Dan Malloy and Ned Lamont. So Malloy LOST three points after the last debate!
I don't know, but it seems like Dan being so anxious for another debate is a bit of a desperation move, when clearly he wasn't helped at all by the previous debate. Perhaps the voters want to hear about the issues, and not simply more political grandstanding.