Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Clinton prevails in PA

No surprise there. There was a consensus opinion just about everywhere that Hillary would beat Barack in PA.

What matters is the margin of victory for Clinton.

Two months ago, Clinton had a 25% lead in the polls. This morning at 6AM, the margin was roughly 10%, with Clinton at 55% and Obama 45%. There are 158 delegates up for grabs tonight. If I extrapolate the current results to delegates earned in PA, we get approximately the following numbers:

Clinton 87 delegates
Obama 71 delegates

That will net Hillary a 16-delegate increase. She currently trails Obama by something like 140 delegates. She'll probably gain a few more super delegates also.

In two weeks, we have North Carolina and Indiana. NC has 115 delegates at stake (not counting supers); Indiana has 72. Obama is heavily favored to win in NC and Clinton not quite as favored in Indiana.

My guess is that the May 6th primaries will help Obama balance out any gains that Clinton makes tonight, leaving the margin roughly the same as it was going into tonight.

The North Carolina primary has an additional angle. John Edwards, the only other candidate who holds any delegates, and is a super delegate himself, has said repeatedly that he will hold his vote and endorsement until AFTER the primary, and he's hinted that he will follow the will of the voters in his state. If he does that, it's almost certain that Obama will get a significant bump in the delegate count after May 6th.

In any case, the margins will probably be the same or slightly bigger for Obama by then. The difference being that there will be about 300 less delegates up for grabs, and hope for a Clinton nomination will be more diminished.

7 comments:

fuzzyturtle said...

Hillary now leading the popular vote when you factor in Michigan and Florida:

Obama: 14,954,773
Hillary: 15,076,842

source : RealClearPolitics

put that in your pipe of Democracy and smoke it, Howard Dean.

oldswede said...

That's a bogus set of numbers. It does not include all the 'not-hillary' votes in MI (238,168), and it does not account for Limbaugh's Operation Chaos crossovers.
After North Carolina, the balance shifts again. Most election watchers give very little weight to the popular vote total because it is so slippery.
oldswede

fuzzyturtle said...

it does not account for Limbaugh's Operation Chaos crossovers Oh come on.. now thats just dopey.

it's a close race and calls for Clinton to drop out are nothing short of insulting. You can't dispute that it is close.. or do you? in which case I'll ask what YOU'RE smoking....!

There have been calls for Clinton to drop out for MONTHS now and yet she won in PA dispute all the money that Obama threw at voters.

People should take a closer look at Obama, he's really not all he's been pumped up to be.

Clinton has good reason to continue and I hope she does.

CT Bob said...

I also think the Limbaugh thing is non-relevant. He'll take credit for Clinton's win, though, and possibly help create some very minor waves in the upcoming primaries.

You should ask yourself WHY all the right-wing radio talkers are backing Clinton? Doesn't it make you a bit nervous that they all think that she's the one that CAN be beaten by McCain?

The MI and FL situation is not going to get resolved. Both state parties knew the rules and the penalty, broke the rules anyway, and have lost their delegates. Plus, they had MONTHS afterwards to try to have a re-do, but both states failed. To award Clinton delegates in EITHER state would be grossly unfair and would seriously damage the Democratic "brand" for years.

It might be a close race, but there's simply no possible way for Clinton to win, unless she manages to usurp the process completely.

Anyway, in two weeks it'll be a moot point, unless Clinton can craft a stunning upset in NC and trounce Obama in Indiana.

oldswede said...

The Rushbaugh OC casts a shadow on Clinton's claim to any small popular vote edge. Until she can get a very large lead in that count, whatever she might gain will be considered too squishy to be valid. Not going to happen, though.
This race is about delegates.
oldswede

adamjschmidt.com said...

"The MI and FL situation is not going to get resolved."

Yes it will, at the credentials committee meeting held prior to the convention.

Now I will accept that Sen. Clinton cannot reach the 2,025 delegate threshold, but the real question is can Sen. Obama?

If neither candidate can reach that number before the convention why would either campaign have a reason to suspend?

CT Bob said...

No, the disputed states won't get resolved by some "committee". Not the way Hillary wants to see it resolved, at least. Not a chance.

The only thing keeping Clinton in the race right now is the hope that she'll somehow get ALL the delegates from FL and MI, and that she'll be able to persuade enough supers to support her, even though Obama is gaining more every week.

The internet is buzzing today with all sorts of "voodoo math" designed to show that it's still anyone's race. The reality is that it's all but over, and Hillary is staying in and simply hoping for a miracle.

I sincerely hope all this uncertainty won't result in a McCain presidency. THAT'S the thing that's got me most worried.