Monday, April 21, 2008

Pennsylvania (Finally!)

Boy, it's been a long wait for this primary to finally get here! Thanks to so many states front-loading the primary calendar this year, we've gone six weeks without a SINGLE primary.

Not only that, but because there's only this ONE primary in Pennsylvania tomorrow and nothing for another two weeks, the media has basically Keystoned us to death with speeches, polls and endless news about the tiniest details going on in the Quaker State.

I mean, after tomorrow, if I never see another frickin' carton of Quaker Oats for the rest of my natural life, it'll be too soon! I'm officially sick of Pennsylvania!

What tomorrow means: We'll almost definitely see a Clinton victory, but not nearly the overwhelming win that she needs or indeed expected only a couple months ago. Clinton will probably beat Obama by 6-8%, maybe 10% at the outside, but it'll be nothing like the 20+% she'll need to make a dent in Obama's significant delegate lead.

This means that after tomorrow the calls for Hillary to withdraw will get louder and spread to more and more mainstream Democrats, especially those fence-sitters among the super-delegates who are playing for favorites.

In two weeks, we'll have Indiana and North Carolina. We can expect the candidates to roughly split the delegates that are up for grabs that day, with Hillary winning in Indiana and Barack winning in N.C. There won't be a lot of change in Obama's lead, and every day beyond the primary that Hillary doesn't throw in the towel will only help McCain's efforts to win in November.

Basically, unless Hillary gets a stunning victory tomorrow, she'll have almost no chance of winning the nomination. The number of delegates up for grabs after Tuesday is too small statistically give Clinton a clear majority. And the super delegates are trickling in more to Obama than Clinton at this point.

Sorry to all you Hillary supporters out there, but that's the way I'm seeing this playing out.


oldswede said...

Hi Bob,
I suspect Hillary will keep attacking Barack until she is sedated. My sense is that the Clintons can't afford to quit, at least until they have set themselves up for another run in 2012. One term of McCain and then Hillary's up. I'm sure you've heard this before.
There are a few dots that need to be connected to get a larger picture. For the past seven plus years, Billy Bubba has been earning huge speaking fees, way beyond what any reasonable person would consider ample payment. Some is for being a rainmaker and a door opener, but I think there's more. He likely has been slyly winking about access to the next installment of the Clinton dynasty and he has a lot of markers out on that now. There will be many unhappy FOBs if HillandBill can't deliver.

Bob Symmes said...

As an Obama supporter, I still think Clinton CAN remain in the race, regardless of the outcome. That being said, there's still an argument that she SHOULD stay in; but ONLY if a) they begin to turn to hitting McSame instead of each other, and b) if someone can muzzle Bill (maybe a variation on oldswede's idea -- sedate HIM!)

Hey -- your security FINALLY spelled a real word!

CT Bob said...

Interesting theory. It always amazed me that private institutions and corporations always paid Bill incredible amounts of money to speak at their conferences. It makes sense that there's something more to it than just wanting to hear the guy talk.

CT Bob said...

Was replying to oldswede there; you posted at the same time.

I don't know if Hillary can stay in the race without sniping at Obama. It's getting close to the Bush/McCain race from 2000, when Bush turned very ugly, and eventually won using his Texas-style politicking.