Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Clinton gambles on TX and OH

After three more primary losses tonight (VA, MD and DC), Sen. Clinton seems to be forfeiting next week's Wisconsin primary and Hawaii's caucus to bet heavily on Texas and Ohio in three weeks. RI and VT are also scheduled for March 4th.

Tonight Clinton is already campaigning in Texas, trying to cement the lead that at one time looked insurmountable, but is now in play. Sen. Obama spoke tonight from Madison Wisconsin; and from all indications, he's continuing to take nothing for granted and is appearing in as many states as possible.

The strategy of ignoring the smaller states for a later, larger potential windfall is shaky at best. Rudy Giuliani took himself out of the running by waiting for Florida, and by doing so he had no momentum to carry into the state and he lost miserably.

Next week's Wisconsin and Hawaii contests will probably add to Obama's momentum. The only thing going for Hillary after next Tuesday is a two-week layoff before the TX and OH primaries. If she gels her base in those states and wins both of them decisively, there's a good possibility that she'll take the lead back. And more importantly, squelch Obama's momentum.

But giving up states is never a good idea, and by this time next week Obama might have ten states in a row he's won. And that might get enough of Hillary's base to switch to the "winner" that he'll prevail in those states.

One thing is sure; if Obama wins next week, and then defeats Clinton in TX and OH, there's no doubt that he'll be our nominee for president.


vagabondblogger said...

I think Hillary's comments about caucus states and her focusing on the larger states is insulting. I don't think she ever thought, in a million years, this would be happening, since it was assumed she would be the nominee. She better not bet on Ohio too much though. Last year Strickland (D) won against Blackwell (R) and one of the issues was Blackwell's refusal to reveal his tax records. Let's not forget, Ohio has a lot of workers that lost jobs as a result of Clinton's NAFTA. As someone originally from Ohio, I'm hoping they go for Obama, and in a big way.

CT Bob said...

I can't help but think that Obama's appearance in Hartford on Super Tuesday Eve, with all massive attendant publicity, may have helped sway a significant number of undecided voters.

By showing our little state just that simple bit of respect, he won his only state in the Northeast that day. And with that win, he denied Clinton the opportunity to brag that she won the entire Northeast.

Even though it wasn't a huge win in delegates, it was a giant psychological boost for Obama, and helped tilt the public perception of the contest in his favor.

Little states matter.

carterman said...

I am sure the rally at the Super Sized XL center helped. I would not count out the power of CT bloggers as well. :)

CT Bob said...

Sure, we delivered at least six or eight votes for Obama!

Anonymous said...

Don't believe Hilary : Her campaign said they are banking on 3/4:

I thought wow!, Hilary just decided to give away Wisconsin/Hawaii to Obama and choose to concentrate on TX and OH.

Folks, I was wrong. I just read a blog that Hiraly's campaign site in Wisconsin is energized, fired up and ready to go. It's quite a strategy. Clinton campaign is deceiving us and trying to score a surprise win by making us believe that they don't care about Wisconsin and Hawaii. I was sooo stupid to believe that Clinton don't put energy in Wis. I remember thinking it odd.

Yes we (still) can! Wake up Obama supporters. Obama 08