Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Lamont favored in Gov poll

The Democrats lead the Republicans for Governor in the latest Rasmussen poll. The poll was taken of 500 Likely Voters. conducted February 1, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports.

Ned Lamont is favored over GOP candidates by the largest margin:
Ned Lamont (D) 40%
Michael Fedele (R) 33%
Some other candidate 8%
Not sure 18%

Ned Lamont (D) 40%
Thomas Foley (R) 37%
Some other candidate 9%
Not sure 14%

Stamford mayor Dan Malloy also leads any Republican, but by a smaller margin and is within the margin of error of 4.5%. He still trends better than the GOP candidates:

Dan Malloy (D) 37%
Thomas Foley (R) 36%
Some other candidate 10%
Not sure 18%

Dan Malloy (D) 36%
Michael Fedele (R) 35%
Some other candidate 9%
Not sure 21%
And this is just an opinion, but it often appears to me that Rasmussen seems to trend more GOP than other high profile polls, so having the Democrats in front by even a tiny margin in a Rasmussen poll is encouraging.

Of course, any poll at this stage of the game has to be consumed with a molecule of sodium chloride (yup, I got an "A" on my senior year Chemistry final at Milford High, Class of '77)

But even so, we're encouraged to see the Democrats trending so well when going for a seat that's been occupied by a GOP butt for the last two decades! (yup, I got an "F" on my English Composition final, etc. etc.)


oldswede said...

Rasmussen uses automated telephone surveys. There is an on-going debate about whether this skews their data toward an older (Republican) demographic, as cell-phones are replacing landlines in the younger demo. Another argument is also on about if the way they formulate their questions slants the answers.
If you haven't already found it, is an interesting site. They have graphs that can be customized by the user. There is one right at the top for Obama's job performance. If you enlarge the chart by clicking, you'll see a button marked 'Tools'. Click on that and select 'Filter'. Here you can remove various polling outfits from the aggregate. Unchecking Rasmussen usually makes the biggest difference. Lately, it's only been two or three points, but during election season it can be much greater on various issues.
Rasmussen is the poll that seems to get cited most often by the MSM, probably because of its frequency and localization, and this tends to color the national narrative.
Another good site for polling discussions is FiveThirtyEight . Lots of interesting stuff.

CT Bob said...

Thanks, I was wondering why Rassy often seems to skew a bit right. Makes sense if they only call all those fossils who never mastered the complexities of cellular technology!

Yes, both 538 and Pollster are bookmarked for reference. I used Pollster quite a bit in 2008, and I'm sure I'll steal a few of their charts as we get closer to this year's elections.