In a final poll of likely voters before tomorrow's primary, Ned Lamont holds a slim 3-point lead over Dan Malloy.
With the race this close, it's all going to come down to which candidate has the better GOTV operation. Getting out the vote will mean the difference between a small turnout of mostly party insiders, which would help Malloy, and a huge popular vote, which more than likely would benefit Lamont.
Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz has stated that she's expecting a turnout of possibly as much as 50% of the voters due to the many primary contests being decided. In 2006 the contested Democratic senate and gubernatorial nomination races drew a record 43%.
With 12% undecided, the final day and a half of messaging will definitely influence the outcome. It's up to the candidates and their organizations at this point to determine who will win. But Lamont has the lead, and with his positive messaging in the final days of the contest, it's likely he'll prevail over Malloy's relentless negative attacks.