From Swing State Project:
SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jim Himes (D): 48
Chris Shays (R-inc): 45
Shays's favorables: 43-32; Himes: 39-22. Shays has a small lead among independents, 46-42, but it's not going to be enough. That's because Obama leads McCain 59-37 in this district - in other words, Democrats are energized. (Remember, Kerry carried this district by just six points.)
This race is far from over, but I wouldn't want to be in Shays's shoes right now.