Thursday, May 27, 2010

Malloy's response to Q-Poll

Today Dan Malloy's campaign manager Dan Kelly released a statement about the latest Quinnipiac Poll:
So much for Ned’s poll in which he claimed to be leading by 35 points; if his poll was right and the Q-poll is right that’s an 18-point drop for him. Not great. As for the Q-Poll, in January Dan was at 11 and Ned was at 27. Today Dan’s at 24 and Ned’s at 41. That means they’ve each moved by almost the same amount. But Ned’s spent a million dollars on TV and Dan hasn’t spent a dime.
Dan's use of the January poll conveniently neglects the results of the March Q-Poll, which showed Malloy only trailing by 10 points. Since then, Malloy won the party endorsement at the state convention, and he somehow lost 7 points! This does not bode well for the Malloy camp.
Given that he has this lead and all this money, I can’t understand why he has yet to accept Dan’s invitation to debate in every community in Connecticut where there’s a daily newspaper. What’s he afraid of?
"What's he afraid of?" Uh-oh! I'm getting the uncomfortably feeling that the Malloy campaign will soon resort to some Merrick Alpert-style taunting. I sincerely hope we don't descend to that level; how soon before we start receiving something like this in the mail?

My concern is that Dan Malloy's campaign is making a huge error by attacking Ned Lamont, rather than the Republican candidate. And Malloy hasn't been talking about the issues, whereas Lamont has been pushing his agenda for job growth and economic stability. I wonder how much of this is the result of several key former Lieberman staffers now employed by Malloy, since they spent much of 2006 talking about Lamont's wealth and not the issues.

As a reminder to everyone, in 2006 Lieberman won solely because the GOP refused to back their own candidate (what a great party!) and Joe Lieberman became their de facto nominee. With the backing of Karl Rove and all the money the Republican Party could raise (Mel Sembler anyone?) Lieberman was able to eke out a plurality, not a majority, of votes to hang on one more term.

And now we have guys who crafted Lieberman's attacks on Ned Lamont working for Dan Malloy.

I fear this is going to be a long, hot summer.

UPDATE: More on Dan Kelly's comments.

Dan quoted Lamont's internal poll, which placed him 35 points ahead of Malloy, and compared it to today's Q-Poll which showed him leading by 17. Kelly claims it was an 18-point drop.

But what Dan Kelly doesn't admit is that an experienced campaign manager like himself would absolutely know that comparing two different polls, with different sets of parameters, isn't like comparing apples and oranges; it's more like comparing apples to Buicks.

The Q-Poll merely questioned "registered Democrats", even those who haven't voted in the last several elections. Lamont's GHY poll questioned "likely" Democratic voters. It's a much more targeted segment of the population and, let's face it, the Democrats who are much more likely to drag themselves out of bed on August 10th and VOTE. Those voters are overwhelmingly going for Lamont.

So if you're going to compare two or more polls, I think it would be best to find several that use the same parameters. Like the last several Q-Polls, which show Lamont trending upward when compared to Dan Malloy, and gives Ned his largest lead yet.


Larkspur said...

Lamont has spent a million dollars because he's not just competing against Malloy. He's trying to make sure that Tom Foley stays behind him for the general election. Malloy has yet to recognize that Foley, who is close to Malloy in the general election polls, could surpass the former Mayor of Stamford with his own millions.

leaveonlyfootprints said...

I like both Ned and Malloy, but both camps are getting a bit out of line.

Malloy has been a little too eager to attack, yes.

BUT as someone with an undeniable financial disadvantage, he has to do something to try to counteract the money. Since he can't raise it, he tries to turn it into a negative. It's a tactic that I am sure we will all see - and not blink at - with Linda McMahon.

Long story short: Please stop equating Malloy with Lieberman just because he is opposing Ned Lamont, and sometimes harshly.

I know you don't need to be reminded, but Lieberman...
1. put his ego above party when he ran for Senate reelection and VP at the same time, despite having a closely-divided Senate and Republican governor in CT.

2. Sold us out on Social Security "reform."

3. Sold us out on the War in Iraq.

4. Endorsed John McCain.


6. Is toying with endorsing McMahon.

Seriously, we all know these things. Sharing some staffers does not turn Malloy into Lieberman, and Lamont supporters would look a lot better if they didn't tar a decent man with such a terrible label.

Besides, Ned is winning. What good does it do you?

CT Bob said...

Alex, I agree that Malloy is a good and decent guy, and he in no way deserves to be compared negatively to Joe Lieberman.

But I have to say, it does concern me to see someone like Roy O., the guy who was essentially Lieberman's Karl Rove, working for Malloy. The attacks are bothering me a bit because if they get repeated enough without anyone pushing back, the lazy media will start to assume it's the truth. We know this is common enough.

Me, I'm hoping for a positive and forward-thinking campaign that focuses on the issues from both candidates. Keeping my fingers crossed!

leaveonlyfootprints said...

I'll second that.

And as a side note, I am pretty sure Roy Occhiogrosso has also worked for CT Senate Dems and LMAF, so he's not all bad.