Poll: Himes leads Shays 48-45%

The latest poll on the hotly contested Congressional seat in the 4th District shows Jim Himes with a slight lead over longtime incumbent Chris Shays.

From Swing State Project:

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Himes (D): 48
Chris Shays (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±4%)

Shays's favorables: 43-32; Himes: 39-22. Shays has a small lead among independents, 46-42, but it's not going to be enough. That's because Obama leads McCain 59-37 in this district - in other words, Democrats are energized. (Remember, Kerry carried this district by just six points.)

This race is far from over, but I wouldn't want to be in Shays's shoes right now.