Thursday, September 28, 2006

Poll Smoking

This Q-Poll is really blowing smoke. (h/t to "The Daily Show")

I try not to pay much attention to the polls. There's way too much variation between polls taken days apart, or even days before an election.

Here's what the Q-poll said just FIVE DAYS before the Primary:
August 3, 2006 - Lamont Leads Lieberman 54 - 41.

In Dem Primary, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; Malloy Gains Some Ground In Governor's; Primary Momentum for Ned Lamont, the anti-war Connecticut U.S. Senate candidate, increases as he rolls to a 54 - 41 percent lead over incumbent Sen. Joseph Lieberman among likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Of course, Lamont did win the primary, but by a margin of less than 4 points.

In other words, the Q-Poll was off by 10 points only five days before the election.

The moral is, don't take this stuff too seriously. 10 points more than five WEEKS before the election means absolutely nothing (except it might help Joe's crew become lazy and over confident, which is a good thing).

You KNOW there's a lot less than 10 points difference between the candidate.

1 comment:

gchaucer2 said...

The terror vote and digestion of the NIE happened after this poll -- time to hammer the issues home in simple terms.