Tuesday, February 09, 2016

New Hampshire

Eight years ago I was in Manchester New Hampshire on the night of the 2008 Democratic primary. I stopped in at Kucinich HQ to see Dennis and Elizabeth for the election returns at a Manchester pub. I also had a wicked cold that night and the Guinness only slightly helped.

Dennis had a very low finish, and he ended up dropping out even before the Connecticut primary. Along with Chris Dodd who dropped soon after.

Hillary made a spirited charge in the final days of the campaign, overcoming a 10-point deficit in the polls to surprise Obama and win by about 3 points.

Today was a different matter. Bernie Sanders rode to an easy victory, with something along the lines of an 18% margin (at press time there was only 24% of the vote counted).

I wonder what changed for Hillary over the last eight years. She isn't a significantly different candidate than she was then. But I guess more people in the region likes Bernie's message, and voted for their neighbor from the Green Mountain State.

Donald Trump also got a huge boost with his win in New Hampshire. I don't know what this says about Granite State Republicans.

Now there's an 11-day wait until the Nevada Democratic caucuses, where Hillary has a significant lead; and then the South Carolina Democratic primary on February 27th. Where Hillary also leads.

But a lot can happen between now and then. Sanders is in a solid position to make inroads on Clinton's lead, and all we need to do to remember that is to look at how Hillary overcame a big lead by Obama to win.

This could happen again in several weeks.

No comments: