Saturday, May 10, 2008

Expect a Hillary blowout Tuesday

The latest poll from West Virginia shows Hillary Clinton with a prohibitive lead, according to CNN.Com:
Clinton has a 43-point advantage over Obama, 66 percent to 23 percent, according to a new survey from the American Research Group.

The poll was conducted entirely after Tuesday's primary results, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
With 28 earned delegates up for grabs in WV, Clinton may pick up mabye 10 more delegates than Obama. But with his current 164-delegate lead, this will have little impact.

It will, however, give Hillary a chance to capitalize on the results and claim that she appeals more to "middle America's voters".

And more than likely, we'll see these grueling primaries continue for at least the rest of the month. I'm guessing we won't see much change in the margin of Obama's earned delegate lead, but by the final (June 3rd) primaries he'll have a majority of the super delegates.

The ruling of the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee meeting about the fate of the Michigan and Florida delegates, scheduled for May 31st, will likely influence Hillary's all but inevitable decision to end her quest for the nomination. I'll be very surprised if we see a concession any time before then.


Bob Symmes said...

Hey Bob --

I noticed Michigan's submitted a plan to seat their delegation -- 69 Clinton, 59 Obama -- which would clear up the messier of the two problems. Aside from the fact that it's almost exactly what I proposed 2 months ago, it's fair -- so Clinton rejected it.

CT Bob said...

I know. I'm not surprised Clinton doesn't want it; it won't give her anywhere NEAR what she needs to make it a close race.

The only way I see this playing out is the DNC offering some kind of compromise solution like above and Clinton rejecting it. Then the DNC rules the original ruling stands. After the final primaries, Clinton concedes the race.

Or, she'll file a lawsuit to challenge the DNC ruling and this will drag out in court all summer. But if that happens, I'd imagine 3/4 of her superdelegates will abandon her, giving Obama an unbeatable first ballot nomination regardless of the results of her appeal.

Either way, it's gonna be Obama, unless he somehow self-destructs in the next month or so.