Saturday, May 17, 2008

Tuesday's primaries

This week we'll see the Kentucky and Oregon primaries. This is the last big group of delegates to be selected, a total of 103 will be chosen by voters.

In Kentucky, Sen. Clinton is leading in the polls with West Virginia-style numbers, somewhere around 62% to 30%. With 51 committed delegates up for grabs, I'm guessing Hillary will garner about 32 delegates to Obama's 19.

In Oregon, Sen. Obama is holding around an 8 to 12 point lead. My prediction is Obama will get 29 to Hillary's 23 delegates.

So, based on my entirely un-scientific guesstimate, Hillary will gather 55 delegates to Barack's 48.

With only Puerto Rico (55 delegates, June 1st) and Montana and South Dakota (31 delegates total, June 3rd), we'll probably see a moderate Hillary advantage on the remaining delegates.

Which leaves us with the following numbers when the primaries are all over and done with Obama at 1986 and Clinton at 1824. Figure in a portion of super delegates who are tending towards Obama, and the numbers after the final primaries will be something like Obama 2050 and Clinton 1900.

This will push Obama over the top.

Of course, we need to see what the DNC Rules & Bylaws committee rules for Michigan and Florida, but even with a full Clinton ruling (where all the votes count as is) Hillary would still be behind Barack in the count.

It's going to be Obama. Let's just work on healing the party and unifying everyone who worked so hard for Hillary. Because we'll need everyone to turn out and work together to defeat another disastrous four years of Republican leadership.


Marie Louise said...

Hey neighbor - just discovering your blog. I must say, I think it will be Obama. Was pushing for Hillary but the writing is indeed on the wall. And I agree with you - what's important is beating the Republicans! I'll be back for your latest appraisals!

CT Bob said...

Hi there ML! I just visited your blog, it's very nice. I'm a big fan of our state too; but then again, with a name like "CT Bob", I'd better be!

Feel free to comment on the topics at hand, mostly politics but also some general stuff.

Sellitman (Kevin) said...

If Hillary supporters need a reason to vote Democratic after 4 years of bush the fuckem. I won't reach out, I won't appease them. I am sick and tired of their attacks and BS. Let them stay home or vote McSame. Enough new young Democratic voters have emerged to offset the fuckers.

Tessa Marquis said...

Pax, Man.

CT Bob said...

Yeah, I kinda agree. It's a brutal realization for Hillary's supporters to deal with, and there's no need to rub noses in it. They're not bad people, just plain ol' Dems like you and me, who happen to think their candidate is better 'n ours.

No matter what Hill's people said or did during the primaries, it ain't nuthin' compared to what the Repukes have planned for us later this summer. Keep that in mind.

Bob Symmes said...

Bob -

Some thoughts on the 5/31 Rules Committee meeting:

1) No matter what the ruling, both campaigns should be required to agree beforehand to abide by the rulings;

2) They should rule that -- no matter what their ruling, the 2,025 threshhold still stands; and

3) they should accept the offeres by both Florida & Michigan, which give Clinton a net gain of about 30 overall.

This solves the two problems with solutions arrived at by the states themselves; and doesn't affect the overall outcome. (But even handing HRC all the delegates wouldn't change it either). This is the best path to healing the hurts of the primaries.....

CT Bob said...

The one problem I see is if they accept any delegates from Michigan and Florida and keep the 2025 threshold as you suggest, there is a potential for both candidates to go over 2025. They'd have to adjust the threshold to reflect however many more delegates they add from FL and MI.

That being said, it all boils down to the super delegates in the end. And currently they're flocking to Obama, which is no surprise since they're all political animals and they realize the nation wants him to be the nominee.