My analysis of the latest Q-Poll on the Senate race:
Ned Lamont has made a significant gain in a three-way race if the election was held today, but still trails Joe Lieberman by 11 points. This is a big improvement over previous polls, and with about 11 weeks to go before the election, there's plenty of time for Ned to overcome that gap.
The deeper numbers in the poll are what interests me.
For instance, the favorability ratings look most promising.
Lieberman rates 43% favorable, 28% unfavorable, with 4% "haven't heard enough". People have a strong opinion on Joe.
Ned Lamont gets roughly the same unfavorable rating (27%), and a HUGE "haven't heard enough" percentage, 32%.
This can translate into a significant favorable rating if Ned's message gets more play. Fully a third of likely voters haven't heard enough about Ned to form an opinion yet! The campaign still need to get the word out with a large percentage of likely voters.
This may be what Sean Smith (fired Lieberman Campaign director) was referring to when he talked about "low-information voters".
"The less they know, the better for Joe."