Thursday, August 17, 2006

Latest Q-poll is promising

My analysis of the latest Q-Poll on the Senate race:

Ned Lamont has made a significant gain in a three-way race if the election was held today, but still trails Joe Lieberman by 11 points. This is a big improvement over previous polls, and with about 11 weeks to go before the election, there's plenty of time for Ned to overcome that gap.

The deeper numbers in the poll are what interests me.

For instance, the favorability ratings look most promising.

Lieberman rates 43% favorable, 28% unfavorable, with 4% "haven't heard enough". People have a strong opinion on Joe.

Ned Lamont gets roughly the same unfavorable rating (27%), and a HUGE "haven't heard enough" percentage, 32%.

This can translate into a significant favorable rating if Ned's message gets more play. Fully a third of likely voters haven't heard enough about Ned to form an opinion yet! The campaign still need to get the word out with a large percentage of likely voters.

This may be what Sean Smith (fired Lieberman Campaign director) was referring to when he talked about "low-information voters".

"The less they know, the better for Joe."


Anonymous said...

Does anyone else think that Lieberman's numbers may be inflated by the fact that Republicans being polled are saying they will vote for Lieberman simply to keep his poll numbers up and keep him in the race - even though they may actually intend to vote for a Republican on election day?

I would suspect this is the case for at least some percentage of the Republicans claiming that they will vote for Lieberman.

Anonymous said...

possibly, but schlelsinger (or however it is spelled) is a crappy candidate.

CT Bob said...

Yeah, I tend to agree. People usually hate to throw away their vote, and don't want to go through the effort to vote for a lost cause. The Republicans who want their vote to matter will probably vote for Joe.

We have to work extra hard to change those Republican minds. One way is to keep reminding them that Ned Lamont is a fiscal conservative, who feels that our nation borrowing $2 billion/week to waste in Iraq would be better saved.

The Republican Party has lost sight of the goal of fiscal responsibility. Lieberman always sides with their position. THAT'S the message we need to hammer home.

mccommas said...

Some Republicans might be fooled into thinking Lieberman is some kind of conservative (that would not be me) but you will not get any of them to think Cut-N-Run Lamont is going to cut their taxes any time soon.